In the first quarter of 2025, the global LNG markets were characterised less by supply and demand than by geopolitical developments. Political tensions, regulatory uncertainties and a reignited trade war between the US and China caused considerable market volatility - with clear effects on trade flows, prices and import dynamics.

Focus on Europe's storage targets

The EU's target of filling 90 % of its gas storage facilities by November had a significant impact on pricing in the first few months of the year. Instead of trading below winter prices as usual, summer contracts became more expensive - a clear paradigm shift that inverted the seasonal spread. The debate about easing storage targets remained unresolved into April.

Trade war reloaded: USA vs. China

With the resumption of his confrontational trade policy, US President Donald Trump once again imposed tariffs on Chinese LNG. China responded promptly with counter-tariffs that reached over 100 %. As a result, no more US LNG deliveries to China have been reported since the beginning of February. However, the impact on global LNG flows remained limited, as China's demand was already declining before the conflict.

LNG prices: Strong fluctuations, driven by geopolitics

Still supported by cold spells and supply uncertainties in January, TTF prices in Europe reached a high of $17.35/MMBtu in mid-February. By the end of March, they had fallen back to $12.80/MMBtu. Hedge funds and multi-asset investors contributed to additional market volatility through speculative behaviour.

Export champions and new players

At 26.4 million tonnes, the USA was once again the leading LNG exporter - thanks to the ramp-up of the new Plaquemines plant and the expansion of production at Freeport and Corpus Christi. Qatar and Australia followed in second and third place. New projects such as the Senegalese-Mauritanian Greater Tortue Ahmeyim and soon LNG Canada are further expanding the range of exports.

Europe's return as a premium market

The EU imported around 36.8 million tonnes of LNG in Q1 2025 - an increase of 23% compared to the previous year. France, the United Kingdom and Turkey in particular increased their imports significantly. Germany, on the other hand, lost slightly in the import comparison, partly due to the limited capacity utilisation of some FSRU terminals.

China slows down, Japan leads the way again

China's LNG imports fell by a drastic 23% to 15.9 million tonnes - due to a weak economy, higher pipeline imports from Russia and the trade dispute with the USA. At 18.4 million tonnes, Japan once again took the lead as the world's largest LNG importer.

Outlook: High price pressure remains

It remains uncertain whether the EU storage targets will be relaxed. One thing is clear: Europe must remain competitive in the summer in order to assert LNG against Asian demand. At the same time, new production capacities such as Plaquemines Phase 2, Corpus Christi Stage III and LNG Canada are waiting in the wings - they could provide relief in the medium term. In the short term, however, the situation remains tense - and politicised.