Germany, as Europe's largest economy, will need 22 to 36 GW of additional capacity by 2035 to maintain its electricity supply - according to the German Ministry of Economic Affairs, citing estimates by the Federal Network Agency. The German Ministry of Economic Affairs is therefore assuming a strong increase in demand for gas-fired power plants - should the introduction of RES and flexible technologies slow down. The stated additional capacity requirement would double the currently installed gas-fired power plant capacity and is also significantly higher than the requirement of 17 - 21 GW stated three years ago - albeit by 2030.
According to the German Ministry of Economic Affairs, the latest estimates emphasise the need for more gas-fired power plants. The grid regulator does not name any specific technologies, but believes that batteries and flexible electricity consumption can also help to close the gap.
Two scenarios were analysed in the Federal Network Agency's report. In the worst-case scenario, 36 GW would be required if the expansion of RES were to stall and technologies that enable more flexible electricity consumption - such as heat pumps, batteries and electric vehicles - were not introduced to a sufficient extent.
From the Austrian perspective, the scale of the additional gas-fired power plant capacity could be of great significance. This is because most of the natural gas destined for Austria's natural gas supply is transited through Germany. If one assumes that the gas-fired power plants will probably be needed primarily in southern Germany - meaning that the corresponding natural gas pipeline transport capacity in Germany will be needed to feed the power plants - in addition to the capacity required for the natural gas transmission to Austria - then there could be transmission capacity shortages in Germany at certain times. This would require complex, cross-border transport capacity calculations. Austria should closely monitor the location planning of gas-fired power plants in (southern) Germany and play a constructive role. If there is actually too little transmission capacity to Austria - taking into account the probable operating times and the associated peak outputs of the gas-fired power plants in (southern) Germany - the following options would be available, for example.
Austria could try to transport more natural gas to Austria via Italy. Although there would be sufficient entry capacity to Austria on the TAG, the question arises as to whether Italy can be supplied with sufficient natural gas for domestic supply and transit to Austria. This is against the background that natural gas production in Algeria would have to be significantly increased - which is quite difficult and requires a long lead time, imports from Azerbaijan cannot be increased in the medium term and the Italian LGN regasification terminals do not have ample reserve capacity either - especially as Italy was and is a country with high natural gas prices.
Another option would be to change the operation of the Austrian natural gas storage facilities. This means that at times when the natural gas-fired power plants in southern Germany are running at full capacity, Austria would possibly have to be supplied primarily from the Austrian natural gas storage facilities - with relatively low simultaneous imports via Oberkappel (note: Oberkappel will have sufficient entry capacity but, as described, the transmission capacity in Germany could become a bottleneck) and Entry Arnoldstein. In addition, gas storage refilling in Austria could be influenced by available transmission capacity in southern Germany and not by favourable summer-winter spreads.
A sound calculation of future electricity demand in Germany is therefore also important from an Austrian perspective. The German government has commissioned two private think tanks to conduct a separate analysis of future electricity demand. Austria should also estimate its future domestic electricity requirements - on a rolling basis - as soon as possible. This should be done against the background of the developments in electricity demand caused by AI - among other things.
