Spot market

The futures market was slightly weaker today amid very thin trading volumes, but remained fundamentally well supported. The German benchmark contract, Cal 27 Phelix DE, was last trading at 92.40 EUR/MWh, down around 0.47 per cent on the previous closing price. During the course of the day, the contract fluctuated between 92.32 EUR/MWh and 93.09 EUR/MWh. CO₂ provided a clear supportive impetus and kept the electricity futures market on track, whilst natural gas gradually eased the pressure somewhat. Overall, market participants remain cautious, as fundamentals have changed little over the past few weeks. The situation in the Persian Gulf remains unclear, whilst the current weather conditions clearly demonstrate the significant impact that extreme weather now has on generation, demand and risk premiums.

Natural gas and LNG

The gas market saw a slight easing of tensions today. The 2027 delivery year fell to 33.84 EUR/MWh, down by around 1.00 per cent. The front-month contract for July 26 was last quoted at 40.32 EUR/MWh and was also under significant pressure. The market is currently anticipating a gradual normalisation of the situation, which is reflected in particular by the decline in the Cal 27 contract. Fundamentally, however, the picture is not without risks. Storage levels are so far only slightly above the five-year average, whilst the geopolitical situation surrounding the Persian Gulf remains difficult to assess. Discussions between Iran and Qatar regarding transit rights, as well as unresolved issues concerning shipping, are keeping uncertainty high. At the same time, the number of ships is slowly increasing again, which has a reassuring effect on market sentiment.

CO₂

The CO₂ market was clearly firmer today. The EUA Dec 26 contract rose to 81.65 EUR/t, an increase of 0.87 EUR/t or 1.07 per cent. During the course of the day, a high of 82.06 EUR/t was reached, whilst the low stood at 80.86 EUR/t. CO₂ thus remains a key supporting factor for the electricity futures market. This movement underscores that, despite low liquidity, the market is prepared to price in weather risks and higher expectations for thermal generation. Further details on developments in the CO₂ market will follow in our special section CO₂mpass – everything you need to know about CO₂ trading.

Spot market and general information

The spot market is once again showing peak prices for tomorrow. In Germany, the day-ahead base price stands at 135.11 EUR/MWh, and in Austria at 132.11 EUR/MWh. There are no negative prices for tomorrow. The lowest quarter-hourly price in Germany is 28.54 EUR/MWh, and the highest is 406.17 EUR/MWh. This results in a spread of 377.63 EUR/MWh. In Austria, the range extends from 13.38 EUR/MWh to 371.10 EUR/MWh, giving a spread of 357.72 EUR/MWh.

The main factor driving up prices is the challenging weather conditions. France and Belgium, in particular, are experiencing significant heat stress; in France, nuclear power generation has had to be significantly reduced. At the same time, wind power generation is around 8 GW below normal levels. Although solar power is dampening demand during peak periods, it cannot prevent the high evening and morning prices. In Austria, this is compounded by an exceptionally low level of hydropower generation, which is keeping the market particularly tight in some regions. The heat is likely to persist until the middle of next week before a change in the weather becomes possible. At the same time, the models are already showing signs of a further possible heatwave from Saturday, 4 July. The short-term electricity market therefore remains clearly weather-driven and susceptible to further price spikes.

Tomorrow’s auction yielded the following results:

Germany: 135.11 EUR/MWh
Austria: 132.11 EUR/MWh