Futures market

• The futures market was up today, with the upward movement driven primarily by rising gas and CO₂ prices. In the morning, a strong impulse on the CO2 market led to gains, before the lead contract Cal 26 Phelix DE lost momentum in the afternoon. The Cal 26 Phelix DE was last quoted at 87.70 EUR/MWh, clearly remaining in an upward trend, but still below the technically important 88 EUR/MWh mark. A sustained breakout above this level is therefore still pending.

Fuels and CO2

• The gas market is firmer today. In the morning, the Q4 delivery quarter was trading well up at EUR 33.20/MWh, while the 2026 delivery year is trading in a narrow range of EUR 32.30-32.40/MWh. Slight support comes from wind forecasts: Only little wind is expected for the beginning of October, which could potentially increase gas demand in power generation.

  Fundamentally, however, the supply situation remains comfortable. Looking ahead to September/October, storage capacity is likely to be filled to around 87% at the start of the withdrawal season. In view of significantly weaker demand, both in absolute and peak load phases, this value is unproblematic. In addition, it can be assumed that more spot LNG will remain in Europe as new supply volumes come onto the market.

  Overall, the combination of short-term weather effects and geopolitical noise is supporting prices, while the medium-term fundamentals speak in favour of subdued price pressure.

• CO₂ prices were temporarily above 78 EUR/t today, marking a new strong buy signal. After this rise, the market cooled somewhat. This pattern shows that investors continue to have confidence in the upward trend and that setbacks are quickly absorbed. More on this at: CO₂mpass - everything about CO2 trading

Spot market and general

• The spot markets will react with a strong price increase tomorrow: The day-ahead auction for Friday shows 96.48 EUR/MWh in Germany and 96.28 EUR/MWh in Austria. The main reason is the significant decline in wind production. PV feed-in is increasing significantly and the temperature in both countries will also be well above normal in the coming days. The further development of the weather will be exciting, more on this tomorrow.