Futures market

• The futures market is still not boring. Following Trump's surprising about-turn on customs policy - suspension of tariffs between the EU and the USA - the market reacted promptly. The lead contract Cal 26 Phelix DE started strongly and reached a daily high of EUR 81.46/MWh in the early morning. However, it fell continuously over the course of the day, reaching a low of 77.30 EUR/MWh. Towards the afternoon, the contract stabilised at around 79 EUR/MWh. The market remains highly sensitive - every political announcement brings noticeable impulses in both directions.

Fuels and CO2

• The coming delivery year started strongly today with a price of around 34 EUR/MWh, before a significant correction set in over the course of the day. In the afternoon, the price fell below the 33 EUR/MWh mark and finally levelled off at around 32.80 EUR/MWh. Volatility remains high - despite the brief relief provided by the US tariff pause. However, this does not affect China, which remains on the sidelines. This is providing new impetus: Chinese buyers are shifting their LNG purchases, while more US LNG cargoes could flow to Europe. A development that is quite favourable for European buyers with short positions.

• You can find all the background information on CO2 trading at CO₂mpass - all about CO2 trading; When the market opened, the price of certificates shot up to over EUR 64 per tonne, but quickly fell back to a level of around EUR 63 per tonne.

Spot market and general information

• The spot market will see the first signs of spring tomorrow: With an average of 26.4 GW of wind capacity in Germany, significant generation from renewables is returning, which has a direct impact on the price level. In Germany, the average day-ahead price falls to EUR 64.63/MWh, while Austria is at EUR 69.58/MWh - due to imports and PV. The weekend remains exciting - especially with a view to possible negative prices. More on this tomorrow.