As already described here last week - see article "Trump: earlier phase-out of Russian natural gas in the EU! Dramatic price effects" - the effects of a much earlier total phase-out of Russian natural gas - i.e. a phase-out of LNG and pipeline gas - earlier than the end of 2027 could lead to high increases in natural gas prices. As an example, the article cited above describes the possible effects of an exit as early as the beginning of 2026. This very early phase-out date could result in prices of up to € 58/MWh in Austria. Hungary and Slovakia would have to cope with even higher prices.

After the European Commission presented a plan last week to phase out Russian LNG - not pipeline gas via TurkStream - as early as the beginning of 2027, natural gas traders are obviously becoming increasingly nervous. Traders are already betting on gas prices of around € 50/MWh in summer 2026 - according to forecasts based on options traded on Monday. These bets represent an increase of around 60 per cent compared to the current level, which has been around €32/MWh in recent weeks.

In the summer and autumn of 2026, natural gas storage facilities will be refilled for the 2026/2027 season and compliance with the regulations regarding natural gas storage filling levels - in conjunction with the planned exit from Russian LNG earlier than the end of 2027 - is apparently leading to a high level of nervousness among traders.

As the "LNG wave" is due to start rolling in 2026 - more likely in the second half of the year - meaning that there should actually be sufficient LNG available on the global LNG market, it seems that natural gas traders are assuming a cold winter in 2025/2026 - and therefore fairly empty natural gas storage facilities at the end of March 2026. In addition, natural gas traders also seem to be taking into account that some LNG liquefaction plants may not come online on time - whether due to technical difficulties, feed gas problems, etc. - otherwise betting on prices of €50/MWh seems very risky.

It is advisable to closely monitor the progress of the completion of the additional LNG liquefaction plants worldwide - as well as any unplanned maintenance work, technical faults at existing liquefaction plants, possible acts of sabotage and - the biggest risk - President Trump's very erratic policies.

We will report here in detail and in good time.