Current market situation
The European CO₂ market continued to rise last week. The EUA contract for December 2026 was well above the 80 EUR/t mark. On Friday, it closed at 80.58 EUR/t. That was around 4 per cent higher than a week earlier. On Tuesday, the price even rose briefly to 82.28 EUR/t. This was the highest level in four months. One reason for this was the European Commission’s announcement that it would auction fewer allowances this summer.

Data, trends, analysis
Many financial investors are currently betting on CO₂ prices continuing to rise. According to ICE data, investment funds have significantly increased their net long positions. These stood at 58.8 million tonnes most recently – 13.9 million tonnes more than in the previous week. Long positions rose to just over 76.2 million tonnes. At the same time, short positions fell to 17.5 million tonnes. This is the lowest level since December 2022. Overall, investors are therefore more heavily engaged in the market than before.

The heatwave in Europe also provided a boost. High temperatures can increase demand for electricity and thus also influence demand for CO₂ allowances. At the same time, signs of political détente improved market sentiment. However, the significant build-up of long positions may also make the market more vulnerable. If sentiment changes, prices could fall again more quickly.

Brief outlook
Over the coming weeks, the market will be focusing primarily on the EU ETS review in July. The key factor will be its impact on supply and demand. As long as the price remains above 80 EUR/t, the market appears stable. However, significant setbacks remain possible.