Futures market

There was little activity overall on the electricity futures market today. The benchmark contract for the calendar year 2027 traded at around EUR 92.75 per MWh. The market was thus trading at its daily low, having opened at EUR 93.35 per MWh and reached a high of EUR 93.45 per MWh.

Geopolitical risks surrounding the crisis in the Persian Gulf remained the focus of attention, though without any new signs of escalation. The dominant theme remained the heatwave. The upcoming delivery months in particular clearly reflect the weather premium. July traded at 96.42 EUR per MWh, August at EUR 98.00 per MWh and September already at EUR 104.00 per MWh. The front end of the curve thus remains strongly influenced by high cooling demand, tighter thermal flexibility and the expectation of continued above-average temperatures.

Natural gas and LNG

On the gas market, risk positions were cautiously reduced today. The contract for the 2027 delivery year stood at 34.43 EUR per MWh in the afternoon, down 1.13 per cent on the previous day. After opening at 34.94 EUR per MWh, the market fell at times as low as 34.31 EUR per MWh.

Fundamentally, the situation remains tense, but less acute than in recent trading days. Traders are increasingly assuming that significant volumes will continue to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Risk premiums are therefore being gradually reduced, though not entirely eliminated. Uncertainty over future developments in the Persian Gulf persists and is preventing a sharper fall in prices. 

CO₂

The December 2026 EUA contract traded firmer today but was unable to sustain a break above the upper price ranges. In the afternoon, the contract stood at 80.99 EUR per tonne, 0.28 EUR per tonne or 0.34 per cent above the previous day’s close. During the course of the day, the market tested an upper price limit of 81.87 EUR per tonne, but rebounded from there and fell back closer to the current level above 80 EUR per tonne.

Market participants are also adopting a wait-and-see approach in the CO₂ market. On the one hand, higher electricity prices and the heatwave are supporting emission allowances; on the other hand, there is a lack of clear follow-on buying above the recent highs. The market therefore remains technically well supported but is vulnerable to profit-taking in the short term as soon as the energy sectors fail to provide any further upward momentum.

Spot market and general comments

The spot market for the coming delivery day – i.e. tomorrow – remains exceptionally expensive. In Germany, the day-ahead auction resulted in a base price of 133.54 EUR per MWh, whilst in Austria the base price stood at 132.95 EUR per MWh. Both markets thus remain at a very high level, reflecting the extreme weather conditions in Western Europe.

The heat is the dominant factor driving prices. Temperatures around eight to nine degrees above normal are significantly increasing demand, particularly due to cooling requirements and an overall higher load during the afternoon hours. At the same time, wind generation remains low, despite a slight improvement forecast for tomorrow. Whilst the additional wind supply is dampening prices somewhat, it is not sufficient to significantly ease the tight supply situation and high demand.

Tomorrow’s auction yielded the following results:

Germany: 133.54 EUR per MWh

Austria: 132.95 EUR per MWh