Futures market

The futures market was significantly weaker today following reports of a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. As expected, the German benchmark contract corrected, initially falling to a low of 92.25 EUR/MWh during the course of the day. The market subsequently stabilised again as demand rose, and was last trading sideways at a new level just below 93 EUR/MWh. The current price stands at around 93. The geopolitical easing is having a dampening effect on prices in the short term, though many questions remain unanswered. The key factors will be whether the calm is sustainable and whether further fundamental drivers emerge from gas, CO₂ or weather forecasts. 

Natural gas and LNG

In the gas market, news of the deal between the US and Iran led to a significant decline. The front month reacted particularly strongly, falling from 46.77 EUR/MWh to the current 42.90 EUR/MWh. The 2027 delivery year also fell sharply and is currently trading at 34.90 EUR/MWh.

The market is thus pricing in a possible easing of tensions regarding energy and transport routes. At the same time, it remains to be seen whether the deal will hold until Friday. Preparations for a normalisation in oil and gas trading have been underway for some time, but experts estimate it will take around two months to reach pre-crisis levels. The risk is therefore not off the table. Too many factors, particularly geopolitical uncertainty, LNG availability and European storage developments, continue to underpin the risk premium in the gas market.

CO₂

The CO₂ market showed a clear counter-movement to gas today. The December 2026 contract rose significantly, thereby supporting the electricity futures market. The current price stands at 79.75 EUR/t, which is 2.57 EUR/t or 3.3 per cent above the previous day’s close. 

The market is now clearly targeting the 80 EUR/t mark. In addition to technical momentum, expectations of key events in CO₂ trading this week are also providing support. In the short term, the CO₂ market thus remains firm and acts as a counterbalance to the weaker gas market.

Spot market and general

On the spot market, prices for tomorrow’s delivery day remain elevated, though with significant differences between Germany and Austria. In Germany, the Day Ahead Base for tomorrow stands at 113.08 EUR/MWh. The price range extends from 40.67 EUR/MWh to 195.87 EUR/MWh. This results in a spread between the lowest and highest quarter-hour of 155.20 EUR/MWh. 

In Austria, the base price is lower at 100.50 EUR/MWh, but the price structure is significantly more volatile. Prices range from minus 20.05 EUR/MWh to 185.78 EUR/MWh. The spread between the lowest and highest quarter-hourly prices is therefore 205.83 EUR/MWh. The negative prices indicate that there is likely to be a clear oversupply in certain quarter-hours due to high wind feed-in. 

The auction for tomorrow yielded the following results:

Germany: 113.08 EUR/MWh

Austria: 100.50 EUR/MWh

As of: 15:47