Futures market

The futures market was once again volatile today and clearly driven by news. The German benchmark contract, Cal 27 Phelix DE, opened significantly higher at 96.35 EUR/MWh following the recent hostilities and the rise in oil prices. As trading progressed, the market initially gave ground, hitting a daily low of 95.60 EUR/MWh. Following reports that Trump had announced tough measures against Iran and simultaneously raised the prospect of taking control of the oil industry, the market turned upwards again and traded above 96 EUR/MWh once more.

Cal 27 currently stands at 96.27 EUR/MWh, slightly above the previous day’s close. The daily high was reached at 96.58 EUR/MWh. Overall, the electricity futures market remains well supported. In addition to the geopolitical risk premium, natural gas and CO₂ are having a particularly stabilising effect. Price formation therefore remains heavily influenced in the short term by new developments regarding the situation in the Middle East.

Natural gas and LNG

The gas market was also dominated by significant fluctuations today. The 2027 delivery year initially opened around 0.50 EUR/MWh lower and fell to 37.95 EUR/MWh during the course of the day. However, following the latest reports from the US, the contract rose back to its opening level and is currently trading at 38.53 EUR/MWh. Gas is thus once again trading close to the day’s high of 38.55 EUR/MWh.

The front month also showed a similar movement. The July contract initially fell below the 50 EUR/MWh mark to around 49.30 EUR/MWh, but subsequently rose again to 50.50 EUR/MWh. The market therefore remains clearly sensitive to geopolitical factors. At the same time, competition with Asia for LNG volumes is coming more to the fore. Heatwaves in Asia and Europe could increase demand for flexible LNG cargoes and thus trigger further price momentum. Fundamentally, the gas market therefore remains well supported despite temporary setbacks.

CO₂

The CO₂ market opened today at roughly the same level as the previous day but was unable to hold onto its early gains. The EUA price currently stands at EUR 77.00/t, which is EUR 0.50/t below the previous day. The daily high was reached at the opening at 77.41 EUR/t, after which the market fell back to 76.55 EUR/t.

Political uncertainty surrounding potential institutional changes within the EU was the main drag on prices. The proposals under discussion regarding the reorganisation of responsibilities between the EU High Representative, the European Commission and the Member States are increasing short-term uncertainty regarding decision-making processes and crisis coordination. From a market perspective, CO₂ continues to be driven by energy policy and fundamental factors; however, in the short term, a wait-and-see or slightly weaker trend prevails.

Spot market and general

On the spot market, prices for tomorrow’s delivery day are falling noticeably. This is due to increasing wind feed-in, which is already having a significant impact on pricing tomorrow. Massive wind generation is expected in northern Germany over the weekend. This is likely to lead to very low and probably significantly negative hourly prices, particularly on Saturday. PV feed-in is also set to rise to record levels. The extreme figures for Saturday will be assessed in more detail in tomorrow’s analysis.

In Germany, the lowest quarter-hourly price is 51.26 EUR/MWh, and the highest is 134.49 EUR/MWh. This results in a spread of 83.23 EUR/MWh. In Austria, the range extends from 42.95 EUR/MWh to 141.99 EUR/MWh, corresponding to a spread of 99.04 EUR/MWh. 

Tomorrow’s auction yielded the following results:

Germany: 97.46 EUR/MWh

Austria: 102.77 EUR/MWh

Created today at 15:43.