Futures market

• There is currently a clear sense of tension on the futures market - the market is waiting for the impulse that will either catapult the lead contract Phelix Base Cal-26 clearly upwards or initiate a slight downward movement.

  After initial losses in the morning, the lead contract stabilised again over the course of the day and is now trading close to the opening price of around EUR 87.50/MWh. Support is mainly coming from the gas market, which has firmed up after a slight setback and is thus cushioning the electricity contract. Overall, trading remains calm, with manageable volumes and no new fundamental impetus.

Fuels and CO2

• Gas prices were up slightly today. Although the market is under pressure in the short term due to the high wind feed-in, weather forecasts point to a cold phase in the coming days. This is likely to increase withdrawals, which will put pressure on storage levels and tend to support the market.

  The front-year product increased in the afternoon and climbed to around EUR 31/MWh.

  In geopolitical terms, the focus is increasingly shifting to the damage to the Ukrainian gas infrastructure caused by continued Russian attacks. Should Ukraine require additional imports from the EU, this could become a further price driver for the European gas market.

• The CO₂ price remains below the psychologically important EUR 80/t mark today and is trading at around EUR 79.70/t in the afternoon, slightly below yesterday's closing price. The trading day has been quiet so far with low volatility and a narrow sideways corridor. Market participants are taking a wait-and-see approach - new impetus is currently lacking.

Spot market and general information

• German day-ahead electricity prices rise significantly in the middle of the week as wind power generation remains comparatively weak tomorrow. The baseload price for tomorrow is EUR 125.07/MWh, while in Austria it will reach EUR 131.64/MWh - both values well above the EUR 100 mark.

  The main reason for this is the decline in wind power before a strong increase in feed-in is expected from Thursday and Friday. Forecasts for Wednesday predict a drop in average wind production to around 16 GW, less than half the current level. However, the situation is expected to change significantly from Thursday when new areas of low pressure move across north-west Europe and wind conditions become stronger again.

  On the weather side, Europe will remain divided into two parts: While mild conditions still dominate in the south and west, the models show colder air masses for parts of northern and eastern Europe. It remains to be seen how long these will last. No significant weather-related increase in demand is expected in the short term for the major Central European electricity markets - Germany, France and Benelux.