Futures market

• Today's trading day on the futures market moved sideways. The lead contract Cal 26 Phelix DE was unable to pick up on yesterday's momentum, which was triggered by the CO₂ market. In the afternoon, the contract traded at 87.20 EUR/MWh. This means that the EUR 88/MWh mark remains the decisive technical threshold: if it is exceeded in the course of the week, a new upward movement could be triggered. The main impetus is currently coming from CO₂.

Fuels and CO2

• The market is stable in a narrow trading range around EUR 32.20/MWh (delivery year 2026). The supply situation remains solid, storage expansion is progressing, albeit more slowly than in 2024. Mild weather, high wind power feed-in and sufficient LNG availability are limiting the price level. EU LNG imports in September will be around 20% higher than in the previous year. Nevertheless, the uncertainty ahead of the winter remains, and a lull in the wind will also be quickly reflected in the price.

• The main impetus on the energy market is currently coming from CO₂. Speculative investors are increasingly betting on rising prices for CO₂ certificates (EUA), which have now climbed to their highest level in four years. September is traditionally considered an important month, as the deadline for EUAs for the 2024 reporting year is 30 September. Today initially saw a strong opening in the morning, but the price subsequently fell below the opening price of 77.57 EUR/t to around 77.30 EUR/t.

Spot market and general information

• The spot prices for Thursday are declining. In Germany, the baseload is at 65.73 EUR/MWh, in Austria at 73.34 EUR/MWh. The downward trend is thus continuing, driven primarily by stronger PV feed-in. While wind forecasts remain mixed and generation is likely to fall, PV feed-in is increasing noticeably.