CO₂ prices have risen sharply since the end of August. The December 2025 contract climbed above the EUR 77 mark, while the December 2026 contract even headed for the EUR 80 threshold. However, the rally was not solely due to compliance purchases. Financial investors also played a significant role. This was due to the upcoming deadline and strong interest from financial investors who have built up so-called long positions - in other words, they are betting that prices will continue to rise. Industrial companies, on the other hand, have reduced their holdings.

It is striking that the rally has not been in line with other energy markets - the correlation between EUA and gas prices has weakened noticeably. The market is proving robust: declines are being absorbed quickly and, unlike in the past, CO₂ is not currently moving in step with the gas market.

Conclusion: The mood points to an upward trend.