The European market for emission allowances (EUAs) is currently showing clear upward momentum, which is being significantly influenced by developments in the energy sector and geopolitical factors. For example, the price for the trend-setting December 2025 forward contract exceeded the EUR 70 per tonne of CO₂ mark. This increase follows a phase of relative stagnation and was primarily supported by the temporary absence of primary supply volumes - i.e. auctions of new certificates - as well as political news. In particular, the recent announcement by the European Union that it intends to completely end its energy dependence on Russia by the end of 2027 is providing an additional boost.

A clear trend can also be seen from a technical perspective: The price broke through the 200-day moving average, a much-noticed technical chart signal that often serves as a directional indicator for further price movements. However, it remains to be seen whether this level can be permanently exceeded or acts as resistance and triggers a correction. At the same time, the latest CoT report (Commitments of Traders) shows that institutional investors - especially investment funds - are increasingly entering the market again. Last week, they increased their net long positions by around four million tonnes, which indicates growing confidence in a continuation of the upward trend. However, the decisive factor will be whether these investors continue to expand their positions at a comparable pace in order to support the positive momentum.

Outlook

Overall, there are many indications that the positive trend will continue, even if short-term setbacks cannot be ruled out. Political developments, the supply situation and the behaviour of institutional market participants will play a decisive role in determining whether EUAs can establish themselves at a higher price level in the long term.