China has been in a deflationary phase since 2023, the global economy is operating in an uncertain market caused by the Trump administration - due to either announced or already implemented tariffs, the peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine seem to be giving positive signals and yet the natural gas Future Summer 25 is rising again. Why?

As the chart below, taken from Bloomberg, shows, China has been in a deflationary phase since 2023 - which could also continue in 2025, according to the opinion of appointed analysts.

The expected effects of this deflation on the global LNG market were described in the article "Falling gas prices - caused by China?", published on 10 March 2025. It shows that China will consume less LNG in the short to medium term, meaning that this global market could relax somewhat.

In the meantime, there have been initial, cautious indications that the peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are gaining serious momentum, meaning that a resumption of gas transit through Ukraine could also be discussed.

In addition, the global economy is moving towards uncertain times. This usually results in lower energy consumption - and therefore natural gas consumption - which should make it easier to refill storage in Europe.

Despite all these indicators - which usually point to falling gas prices - the Gas Future Summer 25 is rising again. If the reasons are not analysed sufficiently, the price increase appears to be incomprehensible.
One of the reasons for the rising prices could be the question of a timely resumption of gas transit through Ukraine - if it should be resumed at all. Even if an agreement were to be reached on the resumption of transit, it can be assumed that a great deal of negotiation work would still be required and this would take time. Contract details such as quantities, routes, prices etc. would have to be negotiated. The condition of the natural gas transit infrastructure in Ukraine would also have to be checked beforehand and who would pay for any necessary repairs.

As many of the former European buyers are involved in arbitration proceedings with Gazprom, the right partners would still have to be found. The Slovakian SPP and the Hungarian MVM, which have repeatedly expressed their interest in the further transit of Russian gas through Ukraine, would be the most obvious candidates for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine. On top of this, reference is again made to the article "The myth of cheap Russian gas", where it is repeated that Russian natural gas could probably only lead to falling prices due to increased supply (additional volumes are marketed).

Taking into account the time it would take to clarify the process steps briefly outlined above, it becomes clear that Russian gas - transported through Ukraine - would not be available in time for the storage refill phase in 2025.

In view of the apparently now somewhat more liquid LNG market, it does not yet seem clear to what extent China will require less LNG and could therefore divert LNG cargoes destined for China to Europe.

Whether there will be a "Trumpcession" is also not yet realistically assessable.

If these factors are taken into account with a high degree of realism, the concerns of natural gas traders with regard to the procurement of natural gas for the refilling of European natural gas storage facilities appear to be greater than the optimism - as a result, the prices for the Natural Gas Future Summer 25 are rising again.