When Saudi Arabia's Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman addressed his OPEC+ colleagues via video call to ratify the group's second huge production increase in two months, he invoked a surprising historical precedent: the oil embargo imposed by the major OPEC states in 1973, which led to a rapid rise in crude oil prices.

Cohesion within the organisation is therefore being put to the test. The decision on Saturday (3 May 2020) to increase production in an already weakening oil market indicates that Riyadh is making a radical change in strategy: After cutting production for most of the past decade to prop up the market, the country is now prepared to depress prices to penalise members who have not met their quotas.

This threatens to fuel fears of a price war within the cartel and strain the national budgets of producers, including the Saudis themselves.

Is Saudi Arabia trying to appease Trump?

But it is also likely to appease the most important figure in Riyadh's geopolitical firmament: US President Donald Trump, a long-time critic of OPEC, who is calling for cheaper oil and will visit the region in just over a week. The gesture is in sharp contrast to the supply shock of the 1970s, which was aimed at penalising Western governments for their support of Israel during the Yom Kippur War.

Riyadh's actions last month echoed those of the White House. The surprise supply increase on 3 April came just hours after Trump launched a trade war against China and other economies that sent financial markets and oil futures into a tailspin.

The prince's history lesson was a sobering rebuff for Iraq and Kazakhstan. Their representatives tried to justify their inability to honour their commitments during the video conference, said participants who wished to remain anonymous. This is far from the first time that Saudi Arabia has tried to force recalcitrant countries into submission.

The Russians are also playing along

"Since 2014, intentional 'sweating' has occurred twice - about five years apart - to enforce discipline, and both episodes lasted until group cohesion was restored," says Bob McNally, president and founder of Rapidan Energy Advisers LLC and a former White House energy official.

But so far, "controlled exploitation" has shown little success. In Kazakhstan in particular, the government has reiterated that it has little influence over production decisions on projects by foreign companies and emphasised that the revenue from oil production contributes to the livelihood of the population.

Further penalties could be threatened. Russia, which co-leads OPEC+, warned the participants that it - along with the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates - had considerable unused production capacity that it could utilise and called on the other members to adhere to their quotas.