EUA certificates are continuing their bullish trend with steadily rising prices. This upward trend has led to the 14-, 50- and 200-day averages levelling out and now all pointing upwards. Investment funds have switched to net long positions after being short for over a year. The market strength could be driven by rising gas prices, which show a close correlation to the development of EUA prices. The options data also point to a bullish trend: The largest open interest is at a strike of 90 EUR/t and represents almost 24 million EUA in call options. The second largest open interest is at EUR 70, close to the current market price, which could stabilise prices in this range in the short term.

Historically, year-end weeks provide strong support as market participants increase trading volumes ahead of the mid-December supply interruption. As usual, auctions will be suspended for around four weeks, with the last auction scheduled for 16 December. Overall, the market appears to be well prepared for a strong end to the year.