Renewables push spot

Created today at 4.00 pm

Futures market

The futures market was significantly weaker today and remained heavily news-driven. The German benchmark contract, Cal 27 Phelix DE, corrected significantly. During the course of the day, the contract fluctuated between 93.80 EUR/MWh and the opening price of 96.05 EUR/MWh, trading at the lower end of the recently observed trading range. In the afternoon, the price stood at around 94.40 EUR/MWh.

The move was triggered primarily by new reports of a possible agreement between the US and Iran, which partially reduced the geopolitical risk premium previously priced in. The pattern thus remains similar to that of recent weeks: the market is reacting very sensitively to news regarding the situation in the Middle East, whilst fundamentally little has changed for the time being. 

Natural gas and LNG

A clear correction also took hold on the natural gas market today. The 2027 delivery year was last trading at around 37 EUR/MWh. Natural gas thus followed the weaker trend on the oil market, which also reacted to reports of possible progress between the US and Iran.

The geopolitical risk premium is thus taking somewhat of a back seat in the short term. At the same time, weather-driven factors are increasingly coming into focus. For the coming weeks, the decisive factor will be the extent to which rising temperatures influence demand. Heatwaves could provide significant support for the 2026 monthly contracts in particular. The issue of storage filling is also regaining importance. As Asia is currently paying higher prices than Europe, LNG competition remains a major source of uncertainty for the European supply situation.

CO₂

The CO₂ market was volatile today but, unlike electricity and gas, managed to hold its ground slightly. The December EUA contract traded at 77 EUR/t in the afternoon, slightly above the previous day’s level. The movement is currently of limited significance, as the market is reacting strongly to news developments and general market sentiment. The fact that equity markets were trading significantly firmer today provided some support. Fundamentally, CO₂ remains without a clear new direction in the short term.

Spot market and general

On the spot market, the focus for tomorrow is on the massive feed-in of renewable energy. In Germany and Austria, high PV production and significant wind feed-in are leading to sharply negative prices in certain hours. In Germany, the Day-Ahead Base for tomorrow stands at 26.82 EUR/MWh, with the Peak even at minus 13.48 EUR/MWh. The lowest price is minus 52.99 EUR/MWh, whilst the highest price stands at 110.49 EUR/MWh. This results in a spread between the lowest and highest quarter-hour of 163.48 EUR/MWh.

A similar picture is emerging in Austria. The Day Ahead Base stands at 32.25 EUR/MWh, with the Peak at minus 8.79 EUR/MWh. The price range extends from minus 52.99 EUR/MWh to 114.56 EUR/MWh, resulting in a spread of 167.55 EUR/MWh. 

The picture is expected to shift again for the coming week. Temperatures are set to rise significantly and be around 5 degrees above normal, whilst wind feed-in is set to fall noticeably. A weekly average of around 99 EUR/MWh is expected for Germany, and around 116 EUR/MWh for Austria. 

Tomorrow’s auction yielded the following results:

Germany: 26.82 EUR/MWh

Austria: 32.25 EUR/MWh