Futures market

• The CO₂ market provided the decisive impetus today: the front year Cal 26 Phelix DE surpassed the EUR 87/MWh mark over the course of the day and was trading at EUR 87.20/MWh in the afternoon. This means that the market is at its highest level for several trading days.

  What is striking is the wide trading range, which came about without any major external impetus - between the high for the day at EUR 87.23/MWh and the low for the day at EUR 85.85/MWh. Whether the breakout above 87 EUR/MWh is sustainable will only become clear in tomorrow's trading. The decisive factor will be whether CO₂ provides further support or the market falls back into a sideways trend.

Fuels and CO2

• Gas prices in Europe are falling: High imminent high wind power production is reducing demand for gas from the energy sector, and there is also currently sufficient supply on the global market. As long as there are no geopolitical risks, the price is expected to remain above EUR 31/MWh for the coming delivery year and losses will be limited. However, CO2 traders have already looked a little into the future and see that the wind will die down next week, which could provide impetus, as could increasing demand in Asia.

• Today's impetus clearly came from the CO₂ market itself. Prices showed a strong upward trend and climbed well above the 77.70 EUR/t mark before initially bouncing back at around 78 EUR/t. There could be many reasons for this dynamic rise. Fundamentally, the outlook for lower wind power generation at the end of next week could support demand. From a regulatory perspective, the upcoming compliance deadline for companies is also playing a role. In macroeconomic terms, the US interest rate policy is also causing movement on the financial markets as a whole.

Spot market and general

• There will be a clear price increase on the spot market tomorrow in Germany, while Austria will see a fall. The baseload is 75.34 EUR/MWh in Germany and 77.81 EUR/MWh in Austria. The driver is the significant decline in renewable feed-in: wind is falling. Overall, the lower volumes of renewable energy in Germany are leading to a clear normalisation of the price level after the extremely low values of the previous days.