Countries such as Japan, South Korea, China etc., i.e. countries with a trade surplus with the USA, could be forced to buy more LNG from the USA in order to avoid the tariffs on imports to the USA announced by President Trump or at least keep them low.

Chinese LNG buyers have already pledged to purchase 14 million tonnes (approx. 20 billion Nm3) from the US from 2026 - 50% more than the record from 2021 - although the end of the line may not yet be reached in order to minimise or completely avoid tariffs on Chinese imports into the US.

Trump's lifting of the partial LNG export ban is likely to further stimulate natural gas production in the US and subsequently increase exports.

The current LNG supply surplus in Asia - due to China's currently weakening economy and the restart of nuclear power plants in Japan - could cap LNG prices in Asia at around $10/MMBTU (approx. €32.7/MWh). This should also lead to price reductions in the EU in the short to medium term. In the long term, competition in the LNG market could intensify due to Trump's energy policy in this regard and lead to falling LNG prices worldwide.