The price of natural gas (TTF - Basis Day Ahead "End of Day") rose by approx. 6% on 20 May 2025 compared to the previous day. What could have caused such a large price jump - especially as no technical faults in relevant natural gas infrastructures have been reported to date that could restrict the supply of natural gas in the EU and the falling gas consumption in China should have a calming effect on prices.

The first reason could be a CNN report in which it is reported that Israel could be preparing for a potential strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. As a result of this report, the oil price (Brent) rose by up to 3.5% yesterday. If Israel were to launch such a targeted attack, Iran would probably retaliate. A potential target could be Israel's offshore gas production facilities. As Israel now exports large quantities of natural gas to Egypt, Egypt could be indirectly affected - with the consequence that Egypt would have to/would have to buy even more LNG to secure its own natural gas supply. If Israel - as a counter-reaction - were also to attack natural gas production facilities/infrastructure in Iran, Iran's natural gas supplies to Turkey (approx. 10% of Turkey's annual consumption - i.e. around 5 billion Nm3/year) could be restricted or cancelled - with the result that Turkey could also be forced to buy additional LNG on the world market - not to mention the possible difficulty of supplying natural gas from Turkmenistan to Turkey via Iran (barter business).

The second reason could be the EU's planned additional sanctions. As already reported here, the EU is planning to stop all natural gas imports from Russia at the end of 2027. As the approval of all member states is required for this type of sanction and it is possible that Hungary and Slovakia could go against it, the EU intends to introduce a quota system. The quota for natural gas imports from Russia would be set at zero. This approach would allow unanimity to be circumvented and the companies concerned would have a solid legal requirement forcing them to withdraw from long-term contracts with Gazprom. According to the proposal, new import contracts and existing spot contracts could be cancelled as early as the end of 2025. As the spot contracts account for around 1/3 of imports from Russia, an additional supply gap could arise from the beginning of 2026 that would have to be closed by other LNG imports.

The third reason is linked to the gap that could arise due to the cancellation of the spot contracts. This raises the question of whether the planned new liquefaction plants will actually be connected to the grid on time and at full technical capacity. For this reason, the project progress of the relevant plants is being closely monitored and reports in this regard - such as those from QatarEnergy - are being analysed in detail. QatarEnergy has announced that supply from the North Field East natural gas field (part of the world's largest natural gas field, North Field) will start in mid-2026 - instead of early 2026 as previously announced - thus increasing Qatar's annual liquefaction capacity from 77 to 110 million tonnes of LNG (from 106 to approx. 150 billion Nm3/year).

We will continue to report on developments here and - where possible - provide our own analyses.