This condition makes it very difficult, if not impossible, for the negotiations to be successful by the end of 2024. However, this does not mean that negotiations will not continue later - with an uncertain outcome. Why are traders and politicians so unsettled even though there is sufficient transport capacity available to supply Hungary (via Turkstream), Austria and the Czech Republic (via Germany) and Slovakia, partly via the Baltic pipeline and partly via Germany ?

If there is sufficient transport capacity, the price in these countries would be based on the global market price, especially as the German gas storage levy is to be abolished from 1 January 2025. Part of the uncertainty can perhaps be attributed to the fact that some traders are unprepared. The greater part of the market uncertainty is probably due to the medium and long-term effects on the natural gas infrastructure in the countries affected. In Slovakia, some of the high-pressure pipelines would be utilised to a much lesser extent as the transit shares to Italy, Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovenia would be eliminated, thus significantly reducing the number of cost units - and consequently the specific transport costs at the high-pressure level would increase significantly. The situation is similar in Austria. The volumes transited to Italy would no longer be available as cost units, meaning that the specific transport costs for supplying Austria could increase, at least on the TAG. On the WAG, the flow from west to east would take place to a greater extent and would probably increase the number of cost units here. Overall, there would almost certainly be an increase in tariffs for the use of the high-pressure networks in Austria, which would ultimately have to be paid by the consumer - in addition to the price for the commodity natural gas - and could therefore reduce natural gas consumption, depending on the price elasticity of demand. The possible effects on natural gas storage management and trading activities in Austria need to be analysed in more detail; this will follow asap. The gas transit stop increases the complexity of the natural gas market in Central Europe, but also in Ukraine - especially as there are fears that the natural gas infrastructure in Ukraine could become a target of war and the situation for the suffering population could become even worse.