Futures market

• What a week! An unexpected price development - bullish in technical jargon - caused astonishment among those involved. The extent of the upward movement on the electricity market was surprising. Today, the lead contract, the Cal 26 Phelix DE, again tested the 100 EUR/MWh mark, but was unable to sustainably exceed it and traded sideways at around 99.40 EUR/MWh. In general, there was very little trading volume this week. Little action is expected next week either, as the electricity traders' trade fair is taking place in Essen and the industry is meeting there.

Fuels and CO2

• Current developments on the natural gas market show clear differences between short-term and longer-term prices. For example, the price for the delivery month of March is currently over EUR 55/MWh, while the price for the coming delivery year was trading at around EUR 42.80/MWh in the afternoon. Weather models are forecasting colder temperatures and little wind for the coming week, which will cause storage volumes to shrink further. The ongoing fears of low storage volumes therefore remain a key driver of price trends on the natural gas market.

• It appears that the long position of speculative traders in the CO₂ market remains very large. The net long position of speculative investors in carbon certificates has risen for the sixth week in a row. The price moved sideways today at around 84 EUR/t.

Spot market and general

• Tomorrow, more wind and less demand will result in a lower price level. Today's auction for tomorrow reached an average price of 108 EUR/MWh in Germany and 113.32 EUR/MWh in Austria. Average temperatures in Germany are expected to be 1.2 °C next week - 2.1 °C lower than this week and 3 °C below the long-term average. Over the next two weeks, German wind power is expected to remain below the seasonal norm; an average of 14 GW is expected next week, which is 7.9 GW below the normal value.